Marketing & Sales Funnel

Compost Crew · 2026 · Budget vs Actual
The funnel
MQL → SQL → pipeline → bookings → retention, with budget targets and the latest actuals.
On / ahead of paceBehind (60–90%)Off target (<60%)
Revenue YTD
$4.47M
92% of budget pace
Total ARR
$13.40M
target end $14.28M
Net New ARR YTD
+$686K
of +$1.38M plan
Open Pipeline live
$1.92M
70 open deals
YTD MQLs live
49
28% of pace · target ~400/yr

⚠ Alerts — major risks, rankedWhat to act on first, based on leading indicators

3 active
1
Top-of-funnel is dry — the commercial growth engine is starving Highest

Marketing has produced just 49 MQLs YTD (~28% of the pace needed for the 400 annual target), and the last 30 days added only ~10. Sales is masking it by self-sourcing — 251 SQLs YTD, 5× the MQL count — so today's pipeline isn't empty. But this is a leading indicator: once the current late-stage deals close, commercial new-logo acquisition has little behind it, and self-sourcing doesn't scale. This predicts the commercial bookings shortfall before it hits revenue.

Owner: Marketing (Dan) · Metric: MQLs/mo vs. ~33 needed
2
Residential base is shrinking High

Net new residential ARR is −$32K YTD against a +$329K target; the customer base slipped from 5,631 to ~5,520. Churn is outrunning sign-ups right now — this is value eroding today, not a future miss. New-logo bookings are at just 9% of plan.

Owner: Marketing + Customer Success (Dan / Joanne) · Metric: net new residential customers
3
Municipal pipeline rides on one deal Watch

The DC Government deal ($1.2M) is 62% of all open pipeline; excluding it, coverage falls to 0.7×. Municipal net-new looks healthy only because of the single January DC booking. One slip swings the whole municipal number. Separately, municipal churn (8.4% annualized) is over the 2.64% target on a single March loss — confirm one-off vs. trend.

Owner: Sales / Customer Success · Metric: pipeline ex-DC, March churn cause

The funnel — YTD flowMarketing generates demand → Sales qualifies & closes → Customer Success retains

HubSpot live + Bookings
① MQLs (YTD)
49
target ~400/yr
28% of pace
→
② SQLs (YTD)
251
5× MQLs — sales-sourced
volume OK, mix off
→
③ Open Pipeline
$1.92M
70 deals
1.8× coverage
→
④ Booked YTD
$1.11M
new ARR won
80% of pace
→
⑤ Retention
−$423K
ARR churned YTD
muni over target
Planned conversion (commercial): MQL → SQL 70%, SQL → close 40%, avg deal ~$5–7K ARR. The plan assumes marketing supplies ~half of new commercial ARR via MQLs — that half is not showing up.

Top of funnel — YTDContacts that entered each stage in 2026

HubSpot live
49
MQLs YTD 28% pace
251
SQLs YTD healthy vol.
MQLs vs. pace-to-date (~172)49
Last 30 daysMQLsSQLs
New this month1034
Run-rate vs. need~10 / 33steady
The tell: 5× more SQLs than MQLs means sales is self-prospecting nearly all qualified leads. Marketing's contribution — the scalable, repeatable half of the plan — is the gap.

New bookings vs. target by segmentNew ARR won YTD vs. annual quota · ~43% of year elapsed

Bookings sheet
Segment / typeYTDTarget% to goal
Commercial — new logos$357K$1,169K30%
Commercial — expansion$39K$104K38%
Municipal — expansion$663K$1,050K63%
Municipal — new programs$4K$240K2%
Residential — new logos$47K$550K9%
Municipal expansion (green) is ahead, carried by the January DC booking (~$608K). New-logo motions — commercial (yellow) and especially residential and new municipal programs (red) — are well behind a 43% pace.

Retention — churn vs. OGSM target

Annualized
SegmentChurnTarget
Commercial10.7%<12%OK
Municipal8.4%<2.64%Over
Residential12.1%<15.76%OK
Municipal churn is the flag — a $108K loss in March pushed it well over the 0.22%/mo target. Confirm one-off vs. trend. NRR target is 102% (CS goal).

How to read the colors

Reference
Green  at or ahead of pace; churn within target Yellow  60–90% of expected pace Red  below 60% of pace, or churn over target
"Pace" adjusts the annual target for the ~43% of the year elapsed, so a metric is judged against where it should be today, not the full-year number. MQLs, SQLs, bookings, revenue, and churn are all coded on this scale.

Key takeaways — pipelineWhat to flag for the CRO

2
1
The forecast rides on a single deal High

The DC Government deal ($1.2M) is 62% of all open pipeline. Total coverage is 1.8× the remaining sales-led target — already under the ~3× you'd want — and excluding DC it collapses to 0.7×. If that one deal slips a quarter, the sales-led number is effectively uncovered.

→ Don't forecast-commit DC at full weight; build diversified coverage behind it
2
Top-heavy pipeline that isn't being refilled Watch

93% of pipeline ($1.78M) is late-stage (Proposal / Negotiation / Contract); only ~$140K sits in Lead / SQ / Appointment. Near-term closes are realistic, but there's almost nothing behind them — the same story as the dry MQL funnel. Expect a pipeline cliff once today's deals resolve.

→ Watch early-stage pipeline created per month vs. the close rate

Open pipeline by stageSales Pipeline · excludes closed & long-term nurture

HubSpot live
Lead — 5 deals$108K
Sales Qualified — 10$31K
Appointment — 2$2K
Proposal Sent — 32$198K
Negotiation — 10$1,417K
Contract Sent — 11$165K
Late-stage (Proposal + Negotiation + Contract) = $1.78M across 53 deals. But Negotiation is dominated by one deal — see concentration at right.

Coverage & concentration

HubSpot live
1.8×
pipeline ÷ remaining
sales-led new-ARR target
0.7×
coverage excluding
the DC Gov deal
Concentration risk: the DC Government deal ($1.2M) is 62% of all open pipeline. Healthy coverage is ~3×; excluding that one deal, diversified coverage is only 0.7× the remaining target. The plan effectively hinges on one municipal contract.

Largest open deals

HubSpot live
DealStageAmount (ARR)
District of Columbia GovernmentNegotiation$1,200,000
World Bank / DonohoeContract Sent$129,216
City of Baltimore — Curbside PilotNegotiation$126,000
Montgomery County — SAYT Pilot Area 4Lead$100,000
City of Manassas Park — CurbsideNegotiation$57,000
Fairfax County — SheltersProposal Sent$28,500
The top of the pipeline is overwhelmingly municipal. Commercial deals are numerous but small ($1–10K each), consistent with the ~$7K average deal-size target. Healthy commercial coverage depends on MQL volume feeding many small deals — which ties directly to Alert #1.

Key takeaways — ARR & revenueWhat to flag for the CRO

3
1
Net new ARR has stalled since January High

The +$686K net new YTD is essentially the one-time January DC booking (~$608K); from February on, ARR has been roughly flat ($13.2–13.4M). To reach the $14.28M target you need ~$880K more in H2 against a current run-rate near zero. On this trajectory year-end ARR lands near $13.4M — about 6 points short.

→ Bookings velocity, not retention, is the binding constraint on the number
2
It's a bookings problem, not a churn problem Watch

Churn YTD (−$423K, ~$1.0M annualized) is broadly in line with the ~$1.0M plan — retention is holding. The miss is entirely on the new-business side: new logos are at ~48% of pace. Pushing acquisition, not retention, is where the lever is.

→ Watch new-logo bookings/week; protect CS capacity that's keeping churn on plan
3
The diversification bet is off to a slow start Watch

Key Compostables (26% of budget) and compost / Farm Feast (17%) are the most off-pace streams, both gated by a web conversion-rate jump (4% → 10%) that hasn't materialized. The non-hauling revenue meant to broaden the mix isn't yet contributing.

→ Watch KC / compost site conversion rate vs. the 10% assumption

ARR roll-forward — actual YTDHow recurring revenue moved Jan → latest

Bookings sheet
Opening ARR
$12.71M
+
New logos
+$0.41M
+
Expansion
+$0.70M
−
Churn
−$0.42M
=
Current ARR
$13.40M
Net new ARR of +$686K YTD vs. the full-year plan of +$1.38M. The budget opened at $12.9M; actual opened lower at $12.71M, so the gap to the $14.28M target is widening, not closing.

Net new ARR by segment vs. plan

YTD actual vs OGSM
SegmentNet new YTDFY target
Commercial+$197K$638K31%
Municipal+$522K$1,149K45%
Residential−$32K$329K−10%
Residential is shrinking — churn is outrunning new sign-ups, so the base fell from 5,631 to ~5,520 customers. This is Alert #2.

Revenue by stream — YTD vs. budget

Financials + budget
Commercial$1.74M / $5.95M29%
Municipal$1.75M / $5.49M32%
Residential$0.62M / $2.11M29%
Key Compostables$0.31M / $1.18M26%
Compost (Farm Feast)$0.04M / $0.23M17%
Bars show YTD actual as % of full-year budget; ~33–43% is on-pace. Key Compostables (26%) and compost (17%) are furthest behind — both are web-visit-driven, where the conversion-rate jump the plan assumes (10% vs. 4% today) is the swing factor.
About this dashboard. A funnel view from demand to retention. MQLs, SQLs (YTD and last-30-day), and the full open pipeline are live from HubSpot; YTD counts are contacts that entered each stage in 2026. Bookings, ARR roll-forward, churn, and customer counts are actuals from the 2026 Bookings Sheet (through ~May); targets are from the 2026 Marketing & Sales Quotas, the Financial Model v6.2, and the OGSM. Revenue actuals are from the presented financials (YTD April). Pipeline "amount" is the HubSpot deal value (annual/ARR basis). Color coding compares each metric to its pace-adjusted target (~43% of the year elapsed): green = on/ahead, yellow = 60–90%, red = under 60% or churn over target. Figures are draft and rounded.